Kamala Harris Predicted to Win Election, Says Historian Allan Lichtman
Renowned historian Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting presidential elections since 1984 (except for Gore's loss), forecasts that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election. Lichtman, often dubbed the "polling Nostradamus," states that based on his proven prediction model, former President Donald Trump is on track to lose. Lichtman’s prediction adds significant weight to the debate, as his track record in forecasting political races has been consistently reliable for decades. Could Kamala Harris's election victory be next in line?
Historian Allan Lichtman, famously known as the "Nostradamus" of US presidential elections, has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election. Despite previously advising Democrats against replacing Joe Biden, Lichtman now forecasts Harris, the vice president who became the nominee after Biden’s withdrawal in July, will secure the presidency.
In a video for the New York Times, Lichtman stated that Harris is poised to defeat Donald Trump, even though the Democrats have forfeited the key advantage of incumbency, one of the 13 factors Lichtman uses in his prediction model.
Lichtman confidently declared, "Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States." His prediction comes despite polls and other factors that suggested otherwise.
His method is based on a set of true/false propositions rather than polling data. Lichtman pointed out that Harris benefits from economic stability, significant legislative achievements under the Biden administration, and the absence of a strong third-party candidate after Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign ended. Even with Trump possibly gaining in certain areas like foreign policy, Lichtman insists these will not be enough to tip the balance in Trump's favor.
Lichtman has accurately predicted every US presidential election since 1984, with the exception of the 2000 Bush-Gore race, which he claims was an outlier due to disqualified ballots.
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