Bangladesh-India Relations: What Direction Will Delhi Choose?

Although there is intense discussion in the media and political circles about Bangladesh-India relations, analysts believe that policymakers need to find a new approach to reshape the relationship between the two countries. A report from The Week magazine on September 13th highlighted that Bangladesh's current situation will have a disproportionate impact on India's Northeast region compared to other neighboring countries. This impact is significant from security, social, political, and economic perspectives, making the discussion of the current situation relevant.

Let's start by discussing the recent events in Bangladesh, including the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government following a popular uprising. It is important to avoid foreign theories that could skew the discussion. Was the upheaval in Bangladesh a right-wing or Islamist protest that aimed to overshadow student protests? Considering the overall situation in Bangladesh and speaking with locals reveals that the students' protests were against a High Court ruling that reserved 30% of government jobs for the descendants of freedom fighters. The students were protesting to demand the reform of this quota system to eliminate discrimination in government jobs.

It is also true that opposition parties in Bangladesh joined the students' movement. One must consider whether it is unusual for opposition parties to participate in protests against a ruling government, regardless of the immediate or broader context. Essentially, politics often involves creating fissures within societal discontent. In this context, it is natural for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) or young students to spark waves of protest.

Indian media has also claimed that India failed to effectively support Sheikh Hasina in dealing with the protests. One must commend a recent observation about Bangladesh’s socio-political landscape. Just as there was clear anti-India sentiment among the Bangladeshi public before the protests, the situation remains similar. When a natural disaster like a landslide leads to blame on foreign intelligence agencies on social media, it reflects the extent of anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. Although opportunistic groups have attempted to build this anti-India narrative, both India’s internal and external policies have equally contributed to the sentiment among Bangladeshis. Given this context, India could have done something valuable to assist the former Bangladeshi government in handling the protests.

Both India and Bangladesh understand that much depends on their unique relationship. While politicians and media on both sides continue their rhetoric, diplomats and policymakers need to find a way to reshape this relationship for stability. In doing so, India faces four challenges, as outlined in a recent analysis by Society to Harmonize Aspiration for Responsible Engagement (SHARE). The first issue is that if Delhi continues to allow Sheikh Hasina to stay in India for as long as she pleases, it will undoubtedly irritate the current Bangladeshi government and particularly the students. Secondly, despite Bangladesh’s reluctance to discuss security issues, there are many examples showing that economic development cannot be achieved without peace and security. Additionally, since the foundation of India-Bangladesh engagement is mutual involvement, India must remember that anti-India elements might become active if India destabilizes its Northeast region. Finally, when Delhi adopts a national policy in relation to Dhaka, it should center around Agartala, Aizawl, Dispur, and Shillong.

If Indian media and politicians cease their rhetoric, it could be a great service to their country. It is essential to continue discussing practical alternatives for the right policies. Understanding the new twists in Bangladeshi politics is the correct answer to resolving anti-India sentiment. If Delhi wants to engage with Dhaka, it should focus on relationships with the political elite of Ganabhaban or the State Guest House Jamuna, rather than solely with the political elites. Delhi must also pay attention to the Bangladeshi public.